|
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 07/17 11:53
Cattle Soft While Hogs Inch Higher
Some light trade has developed now in both regions, but not enough volume
has traded to say that any sort of a trend can be noted.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is trading mixed as the cattle complex is trading
mostly lower, but the lean hog contracts are trading higher. There's been some
light sales noted in the fed cash cattle market, but not enough volume has
traded yet to say that any sort of trend can be noted. September corn is down 1
1/2 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average is up 131.53 points and NASDAQ is up 161.77 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 8,800 mt for 2025
were down 24% from the previous week and 28% from the prior four-week average.
The three largest buyers were Japan (2,500 mt), Mexico (1,900 mt) and Hong Kong
(1,400 mt). Pork net sales of 17,100 mt for 2025 were down 30% from the
previous week and 48% from the prior four-week average. The three largest
buyers were Mexico (7,700 mt), Japan (2,500 mt) and Colombia (1,500 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
Following Wednesday's higher close, traders are now waving their white flag,
seeming to scream, "we need more fundamental reassurance before we can advance
the market any higher," from the rooftops around the world. August live cattle
are down $0.45 at $223.42, October live cattle are down $0.72 at $220.02 and
December live cattle are down $0.72 at $220.30. It comes as no surprise that
boxed beef prices are trading lower as the seasonal regression is well underway
for the third quarter. However, traders are sitting on pins and needles
awaiting to see what develops in this week's fed cash cattle market. Bids were
offered throughout the day on Wednesday, but no cattle traded and as the market
nears Thursday's noon hour, only a small handful of sales have been noted
today. Some light business has been noted in the North from a Nebraska Regional
packer at $380, but those cattle are set for delivery for the week of Aug. 4. A
few deals have also been reported in Kansas for $231, but the week's volume is
still too thin to say that any sort of a trend has been established.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.48 ($372.37) and select down
$2.00 ($355.91) with a movement of 78 loads (36.01 loads of choice, 21.16 loads
of select, 12.87 loads of trim and 7.97 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
And seeming to follow suit again, the feeder cattle complex is following in
the live cattle market's wake, unwilling to move opposite of the live cattle
complex right now. August feeders are down $0.42 at $325.15, September feeders
are down $0.42 at $325.42 and October feeders are down $0.35 at $323.62. What
is interesting to note is that even while the nearby contracts are trading
lower, the deferred feeder cattle contracts are continuing to inch higher as
traders are acknowledging the fact that there isn't going to be an
overabundance of supply anytime in the near future.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is continuing to trade higher as the market is pleased
to see pork cutout values stronger and has established somewhat of a bottom in
the futures complex for this move. It is surprising to note that while compared
to a week ago pork exports were down 30%, the market isn't seeming unscathed by
that announcement. However, last week, the lower note of exports gravely
impacted the market. August lean hogs are up $0.77 at $105.20, October lean
hogs are up $1.57 at $90.27 and December lean hogs are up $1.50 at $81.95.
The projected lean hog index for 7/16/2025 is up $0.43 at $107.63, and the
actual index for 7/15/2025 is up $0.01 at $107.20. Hog prices are lower on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.21 with a weighted average price of
$109.60, ranging from $101.50 to $113.00 on 1,025 head and a five-day rolling
average of $110.31. Pork cutouts total 183.37 loads with 164.71 loads of pork
cuts and 18.67 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.26, $115.00.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
Your local weather forecast from DTN can be sent to your email every morning free through DTN Snapshot.
|
|