DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 06/18 06:19
Grains Rebound, Will Livestock?
Nearly everywhere you looked Thursday, liquidation was rampant. The weakness
Thursday will be difficult to overcome in the coming days as traders will be
hesitant to buy back into the market until some stability is seen.
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $234.42 -1.98*
Hogs: Lower Futures: Lower Lean Equiv: $131.55 +4.31**
* based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue.
(The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in
live cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue
It was a blood bath in nearly the entire commodity complex Thursday. No
matter where you looked, futures were substantially lower. But grains and lean
hogs were exceptionally lower with corn and hogs limit down. Soybeans made a
historic one-day drop as selling erupted. The decline of grain futures did
nothing the stem the selling tide. Generally, cattle would have benefited from
such a severe price decline. Only feeder cattle were able to close higher in
the 2022 contracts. The culmination of a number of issues triggered liquidation
that will be difficult to recover from. Cash cattle held Thursday at an average
of $4.00 higher in the North and $2.00 higher in the South, which should have
provided some support, but when technical selling gripped the market, nothing
else mattered. China was the second largest buyer of feed on the weekly export
sales report, but that was offset by lower sales. Boxed beef continues to fall
with choice cuts down $3.92 and select cuts down $2.72. I think we can
confidently say the top is in the boxed beef market.
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