DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/16 10:48
Grain Futures Slightly Lower Midday Thursday
Corn is 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents lower and wheat is
flat to 4 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 190 points. The U.S.
Dollar Index is 0.35 higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are
weaker with crude down $0.70. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading.
Precious metals are weaker with gold down $40.00.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Thursday with trade fading at
resistance levels and softer spread action so far Thursday after exports came
in weaker along with little other fresh news. Ethanol margins will continue to
see pressure from rising corn and natural gas values, offsetting gains in
unleaded. South America will continue with early full season corn planting and
little weather concern there so far. Corn basis will likely continue to drift
lower into harvest with some isolated areas of strength that should push to
above average pace with the higher temps near term. Weekly export sales were
soft at 246,600 metric tons, with 2,300 for 2022-23. On the December contract,
we have support at the fresh low at $4.97 while resistance is the 20-day at
$5.31, which is where we are Thursday morning.
Soybeans are 1 to 2 cents lower with trade fading back from $13.00 nearby
and rumors of more cancellations, but confirmation of another 132,000 metric
tons sold to China. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 higher and oil is 1.40 cents to 1.50
cents lower as product momentum switches places. Warmer weather should continue
to push the crop towards maturity. Basis levels have been flat to weaker in
recent days. Trade will watch South American weather, but widespread planting
won't come until the end of the month, depending on weather with some recent
showers. Weekly export sales were a little disappointing at 1.26 million metric
tons for this crop year and 2,000 for next year, with 95,400 of old meal,
42,400 of new meal, and -1,700 of old oil, 6,100 of new. On the November
soybean chart, resistance at the 20-day at $12.97, which we have tested
Thursday morning with support at the recent low at $12.65.
Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents lower with all classes of wheat working to
consolidate recent gains Thursday morning with KC still showing leadership. The
dollar is bouncing back towards 9 3points on the index with broad strength
Thursday morning. KC is at a 7-cent premium to Chicago with early week strength
holding this week, with Minneapolis at a 194-cent premium on the December in
flat action. Weather in the Plains looks dry short term as planting gets going
with little fresh news on Southern Hemisphere weather so far, while StatsCanada
edged production lower. Weekly export sales were strong at 617,100 metric tons.
KC December on the chart has resistance at the 20-day at $7.10, which we
remain just above with the fresh low at $6.76 1/2 as support.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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