DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/15 11:01
All Grains Lower at Midday
Trade broadly lower at midday with heat expected for the Corn Belt.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are flat with the Dow 30 lower. The dollar
index is 15 higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are flat with
crude 0.05 lower. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are firmer with
gold 1.50 higher.
Corn trade is 5 to 7 cents lower at midday with trade fading as the a.m.
weather forecast shifted a bit from the weekend runs that had trade gap higher
to open Sunday night. The forecast will be watched closely all day with more
corn heading into pollination. Ethanol margins will continue to see pressure
with the rebound in corn values and the back half of summer driving season with
futures fading along with corn today. Harvest should be on the downhill slide
for Brazil, with mixed conditions elsewhere. Basis remains very strong across a
variety of areas, especially the East with intramonth spreads softer to start.
Weekly export inspections remain soft at 676,485 metric tons. Weekly crop
progress is expected to show steady conditions and lagging maturity with warmer
temps helping to close the gap somewhat. On the September nearby chart support
is at the 20-day at $4.43 with further resistance the recent high at $4.60 then
the upper Bollinger Band at $4.67.
Soybean trade is 6 to 9 cents lower at midday with trade fading again as the
forecast potentially shifted and the continued lack of a demand story. Meal is
2.00 to $3.00 lower and oil is flat to 10 points higher. Crush margins remain
positive with meal and oil regaining the lead today. World export demand
remains slow, with the real remaining near the upper end of the range and
gaining ground again overnight. Weather will come into focus more as we head
towards August and podfill season. Weekly export inspections were in line with
recent weeks at 854,373 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show
steady conditions, and maturity still lagging. The September chart support is
the 20-day at 9.06, with the next level up the 200-day at 9.16.
Wheat trade is 10 to 12 cents lower at midday with trade following the lead
of the row crops this morning. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is slightly wider
this a.m. The corn/HRW spread has narrowed again this morning. The warmer
weather should allow harvest to progress to move to the home stretch, while
Europe makes progress, and the Black Sea continues to see mixed yields with
Russian estimates moving lower last week. The dollar is below 97 on the index
with slightly firmer action today. Weekly export inspections are expected at
315,358 metric tons, with weekly crop progress showing wheat harvest past 60%
for winter wheat, and steady spring wheat conditions. The September Kansas City
chart, support is the 50-day at $4.62 which we are back below at midday then
the 50-day at 4.53, with resistance the recent at high at 4.69.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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