DECATUR, Ill. (DTN) -- Farmers in Illinois are taking yield potential into extra innings this year as a prolonged planting period leaves many hoping August will give them the equivalent of a walk-off homerun in the form of grain fill. But there remain concerns that early season problems may follow the crop into fall.

The 2026 DTN Digital Yield Tour predicts Illinois corn and soybean yields below the USDA RMA five-year averages for both crops, with corn off by nearly 10 bushels per acre (bpa), reflecting weather-related concerns that have haunted pockets of the state.

Illinois is naturally prone to the word "variable" as its 390 miles north-to-south reach covers a range of soil types and weather conditions. This year, those variabilities stand out as parts of northern Illinois remain locked in a D0 to D1 drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Pockets of drought have troubled parts of western and southern Illinois, too.

Meanwhile, too much rain, hail and wind played havoc in some regions and Illinois took the title for enduring the most tornadoes of any state so far in 2026. Overall, Illinois seasonal rainfall has been about normal in aggregate, but for most it was not evenly distributed with an overabundance of precipitation in June. A hot, dry July with several nights when temperatures did not lower enough to let the plants "breathe" has some concerned about pollination and top-end yield.

CORN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2026: 210.3 bpa

-- DTN 2025: 220.1 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 220.1 bpa

SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2026: 64.7 bpa

-- DTN 2025: 64.5 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 65.5 bpa

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its ninth season, this is the third year that employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. The tour estimates reported here are based on yield models as of Aug. 1. The models update every two weeks and do not incorporate weather forecasts.

For more about how those models work and what makes them unique, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

WEATHER COMMENTARY

Widespread drought was a major concern to start the year, said DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick. D2 to D3 drought covered large areas of the state, especially central areas.

"However, March and April rainfall were frequent, helping to eliminate drought for all but the far southern two tiers of counties by the end of April," he said. "Temperatures were back and forth, and while early warmth may have gotten some planters going early, late-season frosts forced some to push back their planting a bit. Times of flooding also pushed back planting and caused a need for replanting in some areas, but soil moisture was good to start the season."

Northern areas of the state were much drier in May, Baranick said, and that caused a brief uptick in drought, but June rains were plentiful. Unfortunately, that came with a bunch of severe weather, and a derecho that moved across the north on June 10. It also renewed flooding concerns in other portions of the state, leading to low crop conditions.

"Heat built in at the end of the month and into early July, and the rains became less frequent throughout the month," he said. "Though temperatures dipped in mid-July, another late-month heat wave likely caused some stress. Since the timing of pollination was likely to be very widespread, the impacts of heat and dryness on kernel development will be interesting to watch. But there's still a lot of weather to go this season, especially for soybean pod fill."

MARKET COMMENTARY

DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said the Illinois 2026 Digital Yield Tour initial result is almost 10 bpa lower than the 2025 tour, and there have been areas of dryness across Illinois through July that may have negatively affected pollination.

"USDA's latest crop ratings certainly reflect lower yield potential in 2026 through the growing season thus far, with 60% of Illinois crop being rated in good or excellent condition to begin August compared to 69% of the crop a year ago," he said. "Illinois is the second-largest corn-producing state in the U.S., so the result for the state's average productivity this fall will of course have a large weight within the national yield."

Montgomery said that it's interesting that despite the lower initial forecast for Illinois' corn crop relative to 2025, the initial soybean forecast is more than 3 bpa larger for the nation's largest producer. Dryness through July looks to subside through August, which may benefit pod filling, though pockets, especially in southern Illinois look more concerning.

"According to USDA, 58% of Illinois soybeans are rated as good to excellent to begin August, 5 points lower than a year ago," Montgomery said. "In my opinion, this suggests the tour forecast for 2026 may be on the more optimistic side unless conditions are near flawless through the critical month of August."

OBSERVATIONS

Lance Tarochione, Bayer technical agronomist, has been seeing variability in fields across much of the central and western Illinois territory he covers.

"We had a wide range of planting dates. Across central Illinois, for example, I can currently find fields at dent and other corn that is just beginning to pollinate," he told DTN on Aug. 3. "Some corn planted early looks great. Other fields planted late in May have struggled, and I'm concerned kernel size will reduce yield in those late-planted cases.

"Soybeans, for the most part, look good, particularly given that they struggled early and through most of June," he said. "Rainfall in August will be the determining factor in how they fill."

Good, but not great, is how Tarochione described yield potential in Illinois at this time. Disease pressure has been light. He's seeing some crown rot pop up and a few aphids in corn, but agronomic problems have been light this season. Issues have been primarily weather driven, he noted.

"We've got good fields and bad fields and fields that contain some of both. Driving by the field doesn't tell the tale," he said. "For the most part, things here look green and good for early August. It's also going to be hard to get a good sample by randomly walking into a field because there's so much variability within fields.

"I don't want to be gloom and doom, but overall, the challenges we have are those we can't fix," Tarochione continued. "The best thing we can hope for is the same thing we hope for every year -- plenty of moisture and cool temperatures through grain fill."

Brett Leahr, a regional agronomist with AgriGold, observed that growers in the territory he covers in western Illinois and northeastern Missouri got started planting early, but wet weather locked them out of the field most of April.

"Crops look pretty good considering what they've been through, but that early wet weather is showing its effects," he said. "Last week, we started seeing nitrogen firing and some diseases are finally here. There will be some yield records and some disappointments. But it is so spotty this year."

-- Steve Pitstick, Kane and Dekalb counties

It's a tale of several seasons for Steve Pitstick, who farms in the northern reaches of Illinois just west of the Chicago suburbs near Maple Park.

His region has experienced drier-than-normal conditions for the past three to four years and prospects were dry as Pitstick headed to the field to plant this spring. Then, rains came in buckets during March and April.

Planters finally began to roll on May 3, and the month turned out to be one of the driest on record, Pitstick reported.

"It was perfect timing for us. We got all our work done and got planted well," he said. "Then, June came around, and it started raining again and continued through June and July.

"So overall, my area and those within 20 to 30 miles of me are not going to have the crop we've had the last two years, even though we were dry during those seasons. We've got drowned out spots and other issues," he noted.

Problems first became obvious with some erratic emergence. Pitstick isn't sure what caused that, but a 48-hour emergence delay in about 3% of the crop has led to a slightly irregular ear set and delayed maturity due to later silking on those stragglers.

"Ears are mostly of the same size, but the crop just isn't perfect," he said. "Perfect is what bumper crops are made of, and we just don't have that."

He's seen no pollination issues and disease has been minimal considering the early wet, humid conditions.

"It turns out a dry June is a benefit because we get the plant established and the roots dig deep. A wet June puts nitrogen out of reach and because of that, we are seeing some nitrogen loss showing up in the lower stalk," he said.

An important part of the season remains, but right now Pitstick puts his corn off by 3% to 5% compared to last year but on par with average production history (APH) since that reflects a 10-year rolling average.

-- Eric Doza, Randolph County, Illinois and Perry County, Missouri

Eric Doza farms on the edge. His southern Illinois farm skirts the Mississippi River in Randolph County near Chester and crosses into Missouri near St. Mary. Some of those acres land smack in the middle of both states on Kaskaskia Island, a unique patch of farmland blessed with some rich soils, but prone to flooding.

This year has been unique for Doza in that the river threatened but never left its banks. It led to an early start: He was planting corn in March and just kept going into April.

"It's one of the best springs we've had," Doza said. "We didn't have a lot of moisture, but it wasn't dry either. We might get an inch of rain that required a few days to dry out, but in between there was time to do field work before the next system came in.

"I was done planting by the first week in May; usually it's the first week in June," he reported. "I only had one field of replant, and that's almost unheard of here."

Unlike other parts of the state, his area was mostly dry during June. Temperatures soared during pollination, but a rain the week of July 4 came just in time.

More recently, though, Doza has watched weather systems dissolve into what he considers microclimates. Rains have become very spotty.

"Is it a record crop? No," he said. "I'd say it's a good crop. Everyone wants to make over 200 (bpa), and I'd say we're there. But I also don't think we have that extra top-end yield this year, and the verdict is still out with more season left to go."

Beans look "exceptional" this year, he added. "I'm seeing a lot of pods, even on later-planted beans," Doza said. He has noticed a few spots of sudden death syndrome showing up in soybeans.

"Disease pressure has been noticeably light in corn, which surprised me because I thought we had ideal conditions for some pressure," he added.

Doza has pivot irrigation on some limited acres, but he's barely needed to use it.

"I just made the second circle with the largest (pivot)," he said. "In a typical year, it would have been around five times by now."

-- Jeff Brown, Blue Mound, Macon County

Lush roadsides aren't always the norm in August in central Illinois. Drive country roads this year, and batwing mowers are still getting a workout.

Jeff Brown, who headquarters his farm operations near Blue Mound, said windshield estimates could be deceiving, though. A late start on the season and a series of weather-related events tamps down his overall enthusiasm for the 2026 crop.

"It was a challenging, delayed planting season with a rollercoaster of weather conditions: wet, cold, dry, hot, wet, cold, dry, wet," Brown recalled. "It was a wild spring that required patience to find the right time and conditions to plant." Planting was spread over six weeks from mid-April through the end of May.

Brown prides himself in targeting perfect conditions to get fast seed emergence. Tiled fields were easier to manage. Those that were not tiled complicated the decision, but waiting nearly always proves beneficial, he said.

"There was one period where we finally got that the perfect time and perfect conditions," he said. "We put the blitz on and ran 46 hours straight to make it happen."

Brown found stand counts were better in May-planted corn than April. He and his farm team will be pulling yield checks across their farms in mid-August to get a better idea of what to expect come harvest. He doesn't expect kernel counts to be much different between April- and May-planted corn, though.

"I think we will find that planting patience pays. Conditions over the last couple of weeks have been wonderful for that May-planted crop to be successful," he said. "When we sprayed fungicide with the ground rig, it's probably the tallest corn I've seen in many years. Small amounts of tar spot have been discovered, but overall, diseases are minimal.

A June 18 hailstorm and tornado dealt a blow to a portion of Brown's crops and those of neighboring farmers. Some replanted corn while others switched to soybeans. Brown rolled the dice and let his damaged crops stand.

"It's hard to look at, but overall, it is small swath of our operation," he said, estimating that those fields will yield half of goal. "The cost will be higher because we'll have to pick it when it is wet because of damage to the stalk. The bruising is significant."

Corn is his favorite crop, but Brown is taking some pleasure in watching soybeans do well this season. They were slow to take off, but pods are filling nicely with some recent rains. He'd like to order just enough rain -- but not too much -- to bring those beans sliding home.

Pamela Smith can be reached at pamela.smith@dtn.com

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